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 enable transparent medicare outcome ai


Pittsburgh Supercomputing Enables Transparent Medicare Outcome AI

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Medical applications of AI are replete with promise, but stymied by opacity: with lives on the line, concerns over AI models' often-inscrutable reasoning – and as a result, possible biases embedded in those models – largely prevent scaled applications of AI for medical treatment, no matter how promising the underlying research. Recently, researchers from Mederrata Research (a nonprofit aiming to use data-driven techniques to preempt medical errors), Sound Prediction (a digital health informatics company aiming to create transparent AI models) and the NIH leveraged supercomputing at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center (PSC) to design a method for recreating the benefits of AI models in medicine with more explicability. The root of the team's approach is multilevel modeling (MLM, not to be confused with multilevel marketing). Through MLM, groups of similar cases are bundled and differential equations are used to identify a limited set of controlling factors for each case, allowing for easier – and more consistent – identification of the model's reasoning compared to post-hoc analyses of more opaque models. The researchers designed and applied the AI toward predicting – and explaining – readmission and death among Medicare patients following a hospital visit, training the model on three years of data (2009-2011) and testing it on a fourth (2012).